Filling the gaps in the global prevalence map of clinical antimicrobial resistance
While antimicrobial resistance is an urgent global problem, substantial clinical surveillance gaps exist in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We fill the gaps in the global prevalence map of nine pathogens, resistant to 19 (classes of) antibiotics (representing 75 unique combinations), based on the robust correlation between countries’ socioeconomic profiles and extensive surveillance data. Our estimates for carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii and third-generation cephalosporin-resistant Escherichia coli benefit over 2.2 billion people in countries with currently insufficient diagnostic capacity. We show how structural surveillance investments can be prioritized based on the magnitude of prevalence estimated (Middle Eastern countries), the relative prevalence increase over 1998 to 2017 (sub-Saharan African countries), and the improvement of model performance achievable with new surveillance data (Pacific Islands).
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