Combining demographic shifts with age-based resistance prevalence to estimate future antimicrobial resistance burden in Europe and implications for targets: A modelling study

The study used data from over 12 million bloodstream infection susceptibility tests across 29 European countries and combined this with demographic projections to model how the burden of antibiotic-resistant infections (BSIs) will evolve to 2050. It found that older people, especially those aged 74+ and men, face a rapidly increasing risk of resistant infections, and that failure to account for age and sex in models leads to substantial under- or over‐estimation of future burden. The authors show that even with strong efforts to reduce infection incidence, meeting a 10 % reduction target by 2030 (as proposed under UN goals) will be achievable for only about two-thirds of the bacteria–antibiotic combinations, and in some scenarios the resistant burden may even rebound after initial decline. The paper emphasises the need for public health strategies and targets that reflect demographic realities, and warns that Europe’s ageing population will significantly amplify the challenge of antimicrobial resistance unless infection prevention and control are significantly strengthened.